Every U.S. presidential election cycle has its key players—candidates, advisors, media moguls—but few have garnered the mystique of Allan Lichtman, the historian with an almost supernatural knack for predicting election outcomes. Nicknamed the “Nostradamus of U.S. Presidential Elections,” Lichtman has famously foreseen the winners of nine out of the last ten elections, a streak that began all the way back in 1984 with Ronald Reagan’s re-election. But what makes this prediction powerhouse tick? And what does he think will happen in 2024?
The One Time Lichtman Was “Wrong”—Or Was He?
Before diving into his current prediction, let’s clear up one small detail—Lichtman’s so-called “flawless” record. Sure, if you go by electoral vote outcomes alone, he’s missed the mark once: in the infamous 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Lichtman predicted an Al Gore victory, and technically, Gore did win the popular vote. So if you’re counting ballots instead of hanging chads, Lichtman still calls it a win. And honestly, who are we to argue with a guy who’s 10 for 10 in his own book?
